The January 2023 Chief Economists Outlook comes out amid continuing economic uncertainty and policy challenges of historic proportions. Although there are some grounds for optimi*, such as easing inflationary pressures, many aspects of the outlook remain gloomy. Policy-makers continue to confront an array of difficult trade-offs, while households and businesses will need to adapt to persistent headwinds throughout 2023.
Almost two-thirds of respondents consider a global recession to be likely in 2023, including 18% who consider it extremely likely, more than twice as many as in the previous survey in September 2022. However, views are divergent, with a third of respondents considering a global recession to be unlikely this year. Regionally, the situation in Europe and the US is now stark, with 100% of chief economists expecting weak or very weak growth for 2023 in the former and 91% in the latter. Respondents were evenly split over whether labour markets will remain as tight over the coming year given the tepid growth prospects.
War and international tensions continue to shape global economic developments, and every respondent viewed it as likely (73% somewhat, 27% extremely) that patterns of economic activity will continue to shift around the world in line with new geopolitical fissures and faultlines.
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